USA vs Jordan Predictions & Odds

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been a revelation for Jordan at the FIBA World Cup so far. The problem is, he hasn’t faced a defense like Team USA nor was he ever a big scoring threat during his six-year NBA career. His scoring surge stops here.

As the pre-tournament FIBA World Cup odds predicted, Team USA has cruised through group play, and the final hurdle before clearing the first phase with a perfect 3-0 record is a Jordan team that has played some of the most entertaining basketball of the tournament. Jordan is coming off an overtime loss against New Zealand and is largely playing for pride now that they’ve dropped both their opening games of the tournament.

Our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for USA vs. Jordan on Wednesday, August 30 believe that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson’s fairytale run will come to an end against a stingy American defense.

USA vs Jordan odds

USA		Jordan
-42.5 (-110)	Spread	+42.5 (-110)
OTB	Moneyline	OTB
Over 185.5 (-110)	Total	Under 185.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 29, 2023.

USA vs Jordan picks and predictions

One of the most fun subplots of the entire World Cup has been the reemergence of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. For those who don’t remember him, Hollis-Jefferson played six seasons in the NBA, the majority with the Brooklyn Nets, before moving on to opportunities in Turkey, Germany, and the Philippines. 

Rondae was contracted by the Jordanian national team to become a naturalized citizen in order to play for them in the World Cup, and they’re surely thrilled with how the investment has paid off. When he played in the NBA, Hollis-Jefferson was a defensive-minded forward, a nice passer, and generally a guy who made winning plays.

But he absolutely was not a scorer. He averaged 9.2 points in his NBA career on a 45.8% effective field goal percentage and never averaged even one 3-point attempt per game for a season.

You certainly wouldn’t know it given how he’s played for Jordan so far. Against Greece, Hollis-Jefferson added 24 points on 7-for-11 shooting from the field, followed up by a tournament-best effort against New Zealand where he totaled 39 points on 12 of 24 shooting. He also nailed a game-tying three, was fouled, and completed the four-point play to send the game to overtime. Hollis-Jefferson’s heroics and decision to wear number 24 (in addition to passing similarities in his game and physical profile) saw him serenaded by chants of “Kobe” as he kept Jordan competitive in both games. 

But Hollis-Jefferson’s success was about more than just hot shooting, it was about another fundamental aspect of good offensive basketball: drawing fouls. While Hollis-Jefferson is still a limited 3-point shooter, he’s been a revelation at the charity stripe. Free throws are the most efficient shots in basketball at every level, and Hollis-Jefferson has gone 23-for-29 from the foul line through two games.

That makes his Cinderella run unlikely to continue against Team USA. A huge part of drawing fouls is creating the initial advantage, and while Hollis-Jefferson excelled at doing so against Greece and New Zealand, it will be much tougher sledding against the likes of Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart. Team USA has the best defenders in the tournament, and because they so infrequently get caught out of position, they rarely commit fouls. At just 16 per game, they’re committing the fourth fewest of any of the 32 World Cup teams.

Hollis-Jefferson has had an incredible tournament run, and he certainly warrants another look in the NBA, but I’m betting his final game of Jordan’s group play will not be overly impactful.

My best bet: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Under 21.5 points (+100 at betway)

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USA vs Jordan spread and Over/Under analysis

This is the largest spread of the tournament so far, with Team USA getting between a 41.5 and 42.5-point edge at most sportsbooks. When lines get this silly, I’m always going to be inclined to look at matchups and player prop contexts because it becomes easier to ferret out positive expected value. Of course, the Jordanian team is outclassed in every respect by Team USA even with Hollis-Jefferson doing his best “Black Mamba” impression, so on paper this line makes perfect sense. 

And point differential does theoretically matter for seeding purposes. But in reality, it’s hard to discern to what degree the Americans will care about a 35-point blowout vs. a 45-point one, and motivation is a huge factor when considering biting on a line this big in either direction. Team USA has also taken to spreading the minutes load around very democratically, rather than mercilessly going with the lineups that would surely run up the score. For me, this is another stay-away line.

Wednesday’s game has earned another sky-high total, with the number coming in at 185.5. While Jordan has played pretty well on offense, my prediction is Hollis-Jefferson is going to struggle with a repeat performance, putting a damper on their ability to contribute to this gaudy number. Still, Jordan’s big man Ahmad Dwairi has flashed some nice passing out of the short roll which could give their offense a jolt.

Ultimately, this again all comes back to how motivated Team USA is. Do they work diligently to lock down Jordan’s best scorers? Their defensive personnel and personality makeup certainly suggest so, and they’ve given great effort almost across the board. I’m slightly more confident that the USA will perform on the defensive end than the offensive one, and I worry about Jordan’s path to even 80 points, so I’m leaning Under here.

USA vs Jordan game info

USA vs Jordan key injuries

USA: None.
Jordan: None.

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