Prop bet #1: Running Waters
The Duke Blue Devils have had some bad injury luck at quarterback as Riley Leonard has dealt with multiple injuries. After missing the last few weeks, it’d be a surprise if he suits up this Saturday and freshman Grayson Loftis will likely earn another start.
Their offensive identity has naturally shifted with such an inexperienced signal caller. More carries have been given to standout running back Jordan Waters, who has been a rock for this squad and has been the best player on the offense at points this season. After seeing no more than 13 carries in a game over Duke’s first eight contests, he’s now carried the ball 38 times across the past two games alone.
Waters has been productive with this increased workload, rushing for 189 yards and three scores against Wake Forest and North Carolina. He’s proven that he can handle substantial volume and I expect him to be rewarded against the Virginia Cavaliers this Saturday.
Virginia’s defense is far from stout, checking in at 122nd in EPA per rush and 123rd in rushing success rate. The defensive line is easy to push around (108th in line yards, 108th in power success rate) and doesn’t create much disruption (115th in front seven havoc). This stop unit has been decimated by injuries and features several true freshmen receiving playing time out of necessity, so this qualifies as a plus matchup on the ground for Waters.
Another positive factor for Waters is that Duke’s offensive line is finally healthy. Left tackle Graham Barton (first-team All-ACC last year) and Jacob Monk were both back in the starting lineup against the Tar Heels and it’s no surprise that coincided with a productive offensive outing.
I’m betting on Waters to exceed his rushing yardage total of 80.5 this Saturday.
Jordan Waters Prop: Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Tight end target
It was thought that Brevyn Spann-Ford was one of the best tight ends in the country heading into the season. The first two months didn’t play out that way, however, as the Minnesota Golden Gophers veteran had 45 yards in the opener against Nebraska but failed to catch more than two passes for seven yards in any of the next five games.
It took a while to get going, but he’s been a different man over his last three games, racking up 160 receiving yards and two touchdowns as a focal point of the passing attack. He graded out as a strong blocker and a prolific receiver last season, so it’d be unnatural for him to lose his powers in a single off-season and regress to being a non-factor. What I’m saying is that I believe in Spann-Ford’s renaissance and see him continuing to produce for Minnesota over the final weeks of the season.
He’ll be needed on Saturday against the Ohio State Buckeyes, who are 27.5-point favorites at home. This game is expected to have a game script where Minnesota is playing from behind, leading to an increase in pass attempts from this usually run-happy offense.
Spann-Ford saw a whopping 12 targets last week — more than double his previous high in a game this year. While that’s likely an outlier figure, it’s a good sign that he’s ingratiated himself back into a prominent role, just as was expected in the preseason.
He’s listed with a receiving yardage prop of just 18.5 against the Buckeyes. That’s a number that he’s cleared in three straight games I’m naturally in favor of the Over. If he regains last season form, as has appeared to be the case lately, that’s good news as he cleared 20 receiving yards in 9 of 12 games in 2022.
If we take a look at the alternative lines, he’s listed at +125 to post 25+ receiving yards, which I like and will be playing as I think that number should have minus odds next to it instead of plus money.
Brevyn Spann-Ford Prop: 25+ Receiving Yards (+125 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Back to Badger
I’ve targeted Arizona State wide receiver Elijah Badger’s receiving yardage prop a few times this season. The books seem intent on pricing him far below his worth, so I’ll keep going back to the well for as long as that’s the case.
Badger has been the Sun Devil’s top target this season, catching 58 passes for 649 yards despite playing with four different quarterbacks behind a very injured offensive line. That’s good for an average of 64.9 receiving yards per game. The books have decided to set his receiving yardage prop at 47.5 this week, which begs for an Over play.
The Sun Devils have had such a run of bad injury luck this season that the offense has been rendered generally non-functional at points. First-year coach Kenny Dillingham is a bright offensive mind, however, and he’s figured out alternative methods for getting the ball to his best players to have them carry the offense.
Badger was an exemplar of this last week when he was targetted 16 times and caught 12 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown against a good UCLA defense. It was the fourth time this season that he saw at least 11 targets in a game and the sixth time in his last seven games that he had at least 50 receiving yards.
Most of that production has occurred when quarterback Trenton Bourguet is healthy and in the lineup, which should be the case Saturday against the Oregon Ducks. Badger has averaged 87 receiving yards in the five games Bourguet has started and finished this year.
This prop is off, and I’m inclined the look at the alternative props to seek better odds. He’s listed at EVEN money to exceed 50 receiving yards, +160 to get 60+ receiving yards, +250 to reach 70+ receiving yards, and +380 to get 80+ receiving yards. All of those are plays for me, and I’ll be using 60+ receiving yards as my best bet for this article.
Elijah Badger Prop: 60+ Receiving Yards (+160 at DraftKings)
