Christmas Day marks a get-right spot for a Philadelphia team that has dropped three straight. Find out why this means Jalen Hurts is due to take a backseat in the stat sheet by reading our Giants vs. Eagles betting picks.
The Philadelphia Eagles will look to end a three-game losing skid when they play host to the New York Giants as 13.5-point favorites in the latest NFL odds.
With the Eagles having arguably the best-rushing matchup of the week, should bettors assume a low passing volume from the heavy favorites and fade Jalen Hurts and his passing totals?
I break down the Week 16 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Giants vs. Eagles on December 25.
Giants vs Eagles odds
Giants vs Eagles predictions
This is projected to be a very low-volume passing game for the Philadelphia Eagles and a high one for the New York Giants. The game script is going to play a major role in this and I don’t think this 13.5-point spread is priced in enough.
Tommy DeVito’s passing attempts have moved from 27.5 to 28.5 but are still showing plenty of value, as THE BLITZ is projecting 32.31. However, Jalen Hurts’ Under 31.5 pass attempts might be my favorite play of Week 16.
THE BLITZ is calling for 28.3 passes from the Philly quarterback, and the model is great for finding these plays in less-liquid markets.
The Eagles have been on the record stating that they want to run the ball more and proved that last week when they ran the ball at a 55% clip, well above their season average of 46.2%. In a game where the script was neutral as a 5-point favorite, Hurts threw the ball 31 times, and the closing total for attempts was 31.5. There hasn’t been any adjustment from being a 5-point favorite to a 13.5-point favorite, which there should be.
He has surpassed this number only once in his last six games, and the passing game hasn’t looked impressive since the bye, with Hurts completing under 60% of his passes compared to a 69% completion rate from Week 1 to Week 9.
New York could also be without Dexter Lawrence, as the nose tackle was a DNP at practice this week. The Eagles are going to be playing with a substantial lead on Christmas, and with DeVonta Smith questionable, the Giants are going to get a heavy dose of the Eagles’ running game.
Hurts won’t have to do too much with his arm in the second half.
My best bet: Jalen Hurts Under 31.5 passing attempts (-113 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Giants vs Eagles same-game parlay
Hurts Under 233.5 passing yards
Swift anytime touchdown
Slayton 40+ receiving yards
Quarterback attempts can’t be added in FanDuel SGPs, but fading Hurts’ passing yards prop is a great pivot, with THE BLITZ projecting 204 yards.
Meanwhile, De’Andre Swift is the man in the red zone for the Eagles and saw four RZ carries and one target last week. Darius Slayton also led the Giants in targets and route share last week with a 63-yard game on eight targets.
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Giants vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
The Eagles were -10.5 on the look-ahead, hit -12 on Tuesday, and moved to -13.5 on Thursday. Conversely, the total has fallen a full point from the look-ahead of 43.5.
Other notable injuries to the Giants include starting tackle Evan Neal, who has missed five straight games. This was already one of the worst pass-protecting offensive lines, resulting in Tommy DeVito getting sacked 33 times over just six starts. The QB has been sacked six or more times in a single game in four of his starts and is now set to face one of the best pass rushes in football.
A big loss for the Eagles remains in the secondary, as Darius Slay is out indefinitely after undergoing knee surgery. Starting left guard Landon Dickerson is also doubtful for Philly, but backup Sua Opeta has five starts on the season.
Giants vs Eagles betting trend to know
The Eagles have scored first in 16 of their last 21 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Eagles.
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Giants vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, December 25, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
| Opening odds: | Eagles -10.5, 43.5 |
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