Covers March Madness 2024 Expert Picks

Chris Hatfield’s best bet: Chucky Hepburn over 10.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

Wisconsin will see a type of defense they have not seen much of this season; James Madison will force the Badgers into isolation situations, and that screams Chucky Hepburn. He’s best suited to profit off those isolation spots and he’s played very well over the last month — he’s gone Over this number in three straight games, averaging 17.5 points in that stretch.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Over 150.5 (-110 at Betway)

The Horned Frogs give up a ton of shots at the rim and are just 206th in opponent 2-point percentage (50.9%). Meanwhile, the Aggies are 12th in the country in two-point percentage at 57.1% —  but are even worse at defending inside the arc, sitting outside the Top 300 in opponent 2PT% (53.1%).

Jason Logan’s best bet: Grand Canyon +5.5 (-110 at bet365)

Although the Gaels play one of the slowest tempos in the country and drag possessions deep into the shot clock, we’ve seen Saint Mary’s get uncomfortable against foes that want to push the pace — seen by its most recent loss to Gonzaga in the regular season finale when the Zags scored 15 fastbreak points in a 70-57 win — and Grand Canyon has a bevy of offensive talents that can finish those fastbreaks, boasting three players averaging 13 or more points.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Dayton +9.5 (-110 at bet365)

Arizona is 260th in points allowed per play when foes finish at the rim, while the Flyers rank 55th in the offensive flip of that metric. While Dayton isn’t known for its pace, it’s comfortable in a tempo game and is very good in transition (12th highest points per play), facing an Arizona defense ranked 323rd in points allowed to transition attacks.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Hunter Dickinson Over 17.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)

The Zags rank outside the Top 200 in opponent turnover rate and give up plenty of high-quality three-point attempts but they’ve also been vulnerable inside. Although the smaller and less skilled frontcourts in the WCC were seldom able to take advantage of that weakness,  during their non-conference slate they allowed 40+ points in the paint to Purdue, UConn, and SDSU — with all three of those teams seeing their center drop at least 20 points. The Jayhawks have one of the best offensive centers in the country in Hunter Dickinson, who averages 18.0 points per game on 55.3% shooting.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Armando Bacot Over 13.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Bacot is playing some of his best — and consistent — basketball in the postseason. Before dropping 20 points on Thursday, he put forth scoring efforts of 19, 18, and 14 points (in 25 minutes of a blowout vs. FSU) in three ACC tournament games and is shooting 59% of his last four contests. 

Doug Farmer’s best bet: Washington State team total Under 61.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

Iowa State’s defense and length keep opponents out of the paint and they overall do not get easy looks — the Cyclones’ average defensive possession length is longer than four-fifths of the country’s — and they eventually force foes to take contested threes, hitting just 31.8% of them. Washington State will hate this Cyclones’ emphasis, as the Cougars took threes on only 31.8% of their possessions, No. 304 in the country… connecting on a pedestrian 34.3% of them.

Chris Hatfield’s best bet: Oakland moneyline (+210 at bet365)

Give me Oakland to win the game outright. I don’t trust Keatts to develop a game plan that is solid enough on a one-day turnaround to score enough. Even if I did, it would be a difficult matchup for NC State to find answers. That belief is increased when you have a coach with such a poor ATS record on short turnarounds leading the way.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Texas +6.5 (-110 at bet365)

While perimeter-based offenses in the SEC didn’t test the Vols inside during conference play, expect the athletic Texas forwards to attack them there. After all, the Longhorns are second in the country at attacking the rim per ShotQualityBets, and they are used to the grind of the Big 12. Vols Rick Barnes coached Texas for 17 years before leaving in 2015, and his long-time assistant Rodney Terry is now running the show. That familiarity should turn this into a rock-fight, and with Barnes going just 4-15 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2009, I’ll take the points with the dogs.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 23.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Since February 10, Terrence Shannon Jr. has scored 25 or more points in 10 of 13 games, including each of his last five games, averaging 30.6 in the last two weeks. Illinois is running through Shannon, his possession usage around 32% in this stretch compared to his season rate of 27.5%. The Illini have become the Terrence Shannon Jr. Show.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Creighton -5 (-110 at bet365)

Not only do the Bluejays shoot better and defend at a higher level than the Ducks, but they also do a better job on the boards: Creighton is 32nd in the country in rebounding rate (53.3%), while Oregon is 159th (50.5%) and is significantly smaller on the wings.

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J.D. Yonke’s best bet: Over 128 (-108 at DraftKings) ✅

Wagner’s defense may have some decent numbers, but it hasn’t been tested; The Seahawks’ strength of opposing offenses ranks just 354th, per Kenpom, and Howard is a different test entirely — the Bison rank 20th in 3-point shooting (37.4%) led by Marcus Dockery and Seth Towns.

Ed Scimia’s best bet: Over 120.5 (-110 at FanDuel) ❌

The Rams have played above this total in 32 of their 34 games this year, while the Cavaliers have hit the Over in four of their last five games — all of which were played at higher totals than this line — while Virginia has also gone Over 120.5 points in 20 of its 33 games this season.

Rob Paul’s best bet: Under 134.5 (-110 at bet365) ❌

Both of these teams play swarming defense, limit 3-point opportunities, and take few shots per game — all factors to support the Under — while Grambling has the third-lowest adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of any team in the tournament while Montana State is the fourth-lowest-ranked offense.

J.D. Yonke’s best bet: Tristan da Silva Over 14.5 Points (-115 at DraftKings) ✅

The 6-foot-9 senior da Silva will be relied upon heavily in this matchup, as Boise State likes to force teams to the mid-range on defense — and he is cash from the mid-range, hitting two-point jumpers at 51.4%, which is 11 percentage points better than any of his teammates.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Tolu Smith Over 13.5 Points (-105 at bet365) ❌

Smith closed the SEC regular season scoring 14 points or more in five of his final six contests. He was logging just short of 28 minutes per game for his first 15 outings but saw an uptick in action in the home stretch of SEC play, logging 30 or more minutes in five of his last seven games overall.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: BYU team total Under 75.5 (-106 at BetRivers) ✅

The Cougars play at a helter-skelter pace — No. 2 in the Big 12, No. 85 in the country — that leads to layups and 3s. But if Duquesne can dictate the pace a bit — No. 251 in the country in tempo — then BYU’s open layups will be fewer, and those threes will fall victim to the Dukes’ defense.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Creighton -12.5 (-110 at bet365) ✅

The Zips had the second-best defensive rating in the MAC but they have holes that Creighton can exploit: Akron may be 14th in the country in opponent three-point percentage, but it ranks just 192nd in opponent two-point percentage and struggles against off-screen plays. The Bluejays run off-screen plays at the seventh-highest rate (with the sixth-best efficiency) and they shoot a sizzling 60.6% from inside the arc — easily the best number among Power Six programs.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Pelle Larsson Over 3.5 assists (-114 at FanDuel) ✅

On the year, LBSU gave up 15.5 assists per game (341st) and opponents enjoyed an assist-to-FGM ratio of 59.1% (343rd) — and Larsson led the Wildcats with 3.6 assists per game this season and his assist prop for this tournament opener is parked right on that number.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Under 133.5 (-110 at bet365) ❌

The Heels faced some similar-paced opponents in ACC play, with the likes of Virginia, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh (twice) ranking at the bottom of the tempo metrics in the conference. UNC stayed Under in all four of those games against those “slow motion” opponents, giving up scores of 65, 57, 51, and 44 points — offenses that are much stronger than the broken-wing Seahawks.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 23.5 points (-117 at BetRivers) ✅

Shannon has scored 25+ points in nine of 12 games since February 10, eclipsing that mark in each of his last four games, including 34 points per game in the Big Ten Tournament.

Illinois is running through Shannon, with his possession usage jumping to 33-35% in the Big Ten tourney and sitting above 30% in seven of those 12 offensive games.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Oregon ML (+100 at FanDuel) ✅

From an analytics perspective, South Carolina has a slight edge, while sportsbooks project a 1-point win for the Gamecocks. However, Oregon’s season-long metrics are a bit skewed because star N’Faly Dante missed 14 games earlier in the season. In addition, freshman Jackson Shelstad needed time to find his groove at point guard but his consistency has improved over the last month: He turned the ball over 12 times in a four-game stretch in December… but the Oregon guard has just a pair of turnovers in his last four contests  — despite facing better defenses.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Dayton ML (+106 at Pinnacle) ✅

Dayton is extremely efficient with the basketball and draws possessions deep into the shot clock with a methodical pace that makes foes play defense more than they’d like. Anchored by the inside presence of 6-foot-10 forward DaRon Holmes II, when opponents collapse to double down on him, the ball kicks out to a perimeter group ranked No. 3 in 3-point shooting. Nevada struggles to protect the paint and allow foes to finish at the rim and in the post-up at an average of 1.17 and 0.82 points per play, which ranks 262nd and 240th, respectively, according to ShotQualityBets.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Texas -2 (-115 at DraftKings) ✅

Not only did Texas make it to the Elite Eight last year but all five starters have significant Big Dance experience — in fact, leading scorer Max Abmas became a March Madness hero when he played for Oral Roberts, and shooting guard Tyrese Hunter also has a history of hitting clutch shots in March. The Rams, meanwhile, only have one starter with NCAA Tournament experience: star point guard Isaiah Stevens, who struggled in his lone March Madness appearance in a lopsided first-round loss in 2022.

Chris Hatfield’s best bet: Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 threes (+140 at bet365) ✅

Oakland is a terrible spot-up defense, allowing .98 points per possession on such sets and 38% shooting. Much of that has come against a schedule far from the quality of what Kentucky will throw at it, too, and in addition to that, its zone has allowed non-conference foes to shoot nearly 40% from deep.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: McNeese State +6.5 (-110 at bet365) ❌

There are a few flaws for Gonzaga on offense but there are even bigger weaknesses on defense: The Bulldogs sit outside the Top 200 in opponent turnover rate and ranking 341st in allowing high-quality threes — and McNeese State drains a sizzling 39.4% of their attempts from beyond the arc — the seventh-best number in the country. The Cowboys also get to the free throw line at the 10th highest rate, while ranking 10th in the country in defensive efficiency and force turnovers at the sixth-highest rate.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: William Kyle Over 6.5 rebounds (+118 at BetRivers) ✅

Robert Jones is the only main rotation player for the Cyclones that stands taller than Kyle, who is 6-foot-10 and 255 pounds. Yet Jones does not rebound at near the rate that Kyle does, while the rest of the Iowa State rotation is somewhat dwarfed by Kyle. He finds misses with regularity… and there will be many missed shots on Thursday night in Omaha.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Under 130 (-109 at Pinnacle) ❌

The Peacocks have a pathetic offense but they’re tough on the other end of the floor, ranking eighth in the country in defensive efficiency and 22nd in opponent-effective field goal percentage. Even if Tennessee is efficient offensively, points could still be suppressed due to Saint Peter’s sluggish pace, as they are 338th in adjusted tempo.

Chris Hatfield’s best bet: Chance McMillian Over 2.5 made threes (+200 at bet365) ❌

NC State comes back to who they are after the high of a magical run — and “who they are” is a frantic half-court pressing defense… but one that leaves a bevy of open shooters against offenses that make it move. McMillian comes into this game with a spot-up shooting percentage that rates him among the nation’s best and I’m expecting him to get a good amount of open looks from deep.

Rohit Ponnaiya’s best bet: Hunter Dickinson Over 19.5 points (-115 at bet365) ❌

Dickinson averages 18 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting 55% from the floor and he’s been one of the top offensive big men in the country since his sophomore season at Michigan — and he’ll now face an undersized Samford frontcourt, that doesn’t defend well down low, with a few extra looks offensively considering Kevin McCullar is out.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: Drake moneyline (-118 at FanDuel) ❌

The Cougars excessively limit opponent’s looks from deep, giving up those shots less often than anyone else in the Pac-12. But the Bulldogs do not rely on the three, shooting it well but equally distributing their points. In any close tournament game, faith should be given to the Drake team that makes free throws (76.3%) and takes a decent amount of them while rarely fouling — especially when its opponent shoots them poorly.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: Northwestern ML (+130 at Caesars) ✅

If Northwestern had played like this all season, it probably would have earned a 6- or a 7-seed, not this spot in an 8-9 game. Looking at the season of work, the Wildcats were properly seeded, but giving some credence to a point guard who reached the Sweet Sixteen last year — scoring 18.7 points per game in doing so — suddenly reveals Northwestern as a team to consider this March.

Jason Logan’s best bet: Colgate first half +8 (-105 at DraftKings) ❌

There’s a massive gap in overall talent and coaching between these teams — and that will show over 40 minutes. But as far as first halves go, Baylor has been slow out of the blocks, at least by its standards: The Bears own a first-half margin of just +2.8 on the season, which is a stark contrast to their second-half gap of +6.3 in the final 20 minutes.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: San Diego State -7 (-108 at BetRivers)

The Aztecs boast the best player on the court in forward Jaedon LeDee and will dictate the pace of the game by relying on their suffocating defense to force UAB to chuck from deep. UAB should not be in this game, and the style of it could turn this into a rout. 

Chris Hatfield’s best bet: Western Kentucky +8.5 first half (-108 at FanDuel)

Western can throw a few wrinkles at Marquette early in the halfcourt to avoid relying on scoring in transition. One of those places is in the post; Marquette has not been good there defensively this season, ranking near the bottom of the Big East in points per possession allowed on post-up sets. The Hilltoppers will see this as an opportunity between Babacar Faye and Rodney Howard, who rank in the top 70% of scoring on post-up sets. There’s a reasonable path for Western to get some regular, early, consistent offense here to stay close.

Doug Farmer’s best bet: Stetson team total Over 59.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

The Huskies played nine games against teams against what are considered Quad-4 opponents — teams so overmatched that they favored by at least 21 points (UConn is favored by 26.5 vs. Stetson) — and in those nine games, UConn gave up 6.2 points per 100 possessions more than against all other foes, adjusted for opponents.

Jason Logan’s best bet: PJ Hall Over 17.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)

New Mexico will get its heels above the 3-point line and take away the Tigers’ outside threats like Joe Girard, leaving Clemson to dump the ball inside and let Hall go to work. The Lobos often find themselves in foul trouble (17.6 per game — 239th) and send foes to the stripe for 19.7 free-throw attempts. Hall will cash in those freebies, shooting 79% from the line.