Relying on Kirk Cousins’ arm didn’t work out well for Atlanta in Week 1. Anticipate plenty of runs — and rushing yards — for the youngster Robinson.
The feathers fly on Monday Night Football when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2.
It was Philadelphia who owned the trenches in its Week 1 matchup, but my Falcons vs. Eagles predictions are focusing on the strong run game of Bijan Robinson. Find out why in my NFL picks for this affair.
Ryan Gilbert also has you covered with his spotlight on Jalen Hurts odds.
Falcons vs Eagles MNF prediction
My best bet
Bijan Robinson Over 64.5 rushing yards (-120 at FanDuel)
My analysis
All eyes were on Kirk Cousins’ Achilles this week, with skepticism around the health of the Atlanta Falcons’ $180 million offseason investment.
There was no shortage of potential video evidence, from clips of Week 1’s loss against Pittsburgh to his reps in practice. I guess we’ll find out when the ball snaps Monday. But regardless of Cousins’ condition, Atlanta has to do a better job running the ball.
The Falcons mustered only 89 yards rushing vs. the Steelers, handing off on 44% of their Week 1 snaps. Running back Bijan Robinson took the bulk of those carries, running 18 times for 68 yards. Atlanta has two capable ball carriers in Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, but it was Robinson who garnered 89% of snaps in the opener.
Head coach Raheem Morris told reporters that the plan against Pittsburgh was to run more (only 21 designed runs) but penalties and miscues put the Falcons behind the chains, forcing them to throw more than they liked and putting a lot of pressure on Cousins — who was the second-most pressure passer in Week 1.
Week 2’s opponent isn’t on the same level as the Steelers’ stop unit and is working in a brand new defense from DC Vic Fangio. The Philadelphia Eagles got pushed around by the Packers in Brazil last week, allowing 163 rushing yards on 7.8 yards per carry. That left Philly 31st in EPA allowed per handoff in Week 1.
Robinson’s 18 carries in Week 1 tied the third most attempts of his young career, and Week 2 projections have him forecasted for another busy game on Monday night. Rushing yard models for Robinson range from 69 yards to almost 80 yards on the ground, with all projections sitting north of his rushing yard Over/Under total of 64.5 yards.
My number comes out to 72 rushing yards, but I do think his output has a higher ceiling if Cousins is broken, as some believe. Mix in a soft Eagles run defense, and Robinson could run up and down Lincoln Financial Field all night.
Falcons vs Eagles MNF same-game parlay
Bijan Robinson 60+ rushing yards
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
Over 46.5
Robinson is projected for as many as 80 yards on the ground. Even modest models call for more than 60 yards rushing.
A goal-line fumble took away a Hurts TD last week. The Brotherly Shove gets in on MNF.
I really like the Eagles’ offense, which could have scored more in Week 1. Atlanta faces a more passive pass rush, which helps it to get going on offense in Week 2.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Falcons vs Eagles odds
Falcons vs Eagles live odds
Falcons vs Eagles opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +6 (-110) | Philadelphia -6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Atlanta +180 | Philadelphia -225
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Falcons vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
- Look-ahead lines in the summer had Philadelphia as a 3.5-point home favorite for this primetime matchup. After the events of Week 1, the official Week 2 opening spread was Eagles -6.
- Philadelphia -6 got as high as -6.5, but with the Eagles missing top WR A.J. Brown, that spread sunk to as low as -5.5 on Sunday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus, 76% of picks are laying the points with the home team.
- This Over/Under total was at 48.5 points in the look-ahead markets before Week 1. The official Week 2 total opened there but quickly got bet down to 46.5 O/U, with concerns around Cousins’ health and Brown’s injury.
Falcons vs Eagles betting trend to know
The Philadelphia Eagles are 16-3 SU and 11-6-2 ATS as home favorites since 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Eagles.
Falcons vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 9-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
Falcons vs Eagles latest injuries
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