An interleague California showdown gets underway tonight when the Oakland Athletics take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams come into this game off of a loss but our MLB expert believes there’s only one likely outcome for tonight’s contest.
It’s Southern California vs. Northern California as the Oakland A’s (30-77) head south to face the Los Angeles Dodgers (59-45) for a three-game interleague series that gets underway Tuesday night.
The Dodgers will look to show off their shiny new toy as they send newly acquired starting pitcher Lance Lynn to the mound.
The start of August could be an important time in the NL West standings where LA currents sits 2.5 games up on the San Francisco Giants for first place. Oakland hosts the Giants in its next series and both NL West teams will look to gain some ground in the standings against a downed opponent.
Looking at MLB odds, I have my eyes set on the total for Game 1’s best bet. Check out why in my full MLB picks and predictions for A’s vs. Dodgers on Tuesday, August 1.
Athletics vs Dodgers odds
Athletics vs Dodgers predictions
Right-hander Lance Lynn will be making his debut in Dodgers blue. He’s had a fascinating season in that his ERA has ballooned all the way up to 6.47 — much higher than his 4.01 xFIP.
The highs have been very high (7 IP, 1H, 11 K against Toronto on July 6; 16 K against Seattle on June 18) while the lows have been rock-bottom (17 ER surrendered in his last 16 ? IP). He simply has not been a pitcher that you can trust in 2023.
His primary issue has been the home run — his 20.6% HR/FB ratio is by far the highest of his career, is more than double what it was in his stellar ‘21 campaign (10.2%), and is well above his career mark of 10.9%. The right-handed hurler is allowing plenty of hard contact (10.9% barrel rate — ninth percentile) but it’s still shocking to see this many fly balls leave the yard.
Weather could play a factor in this one as the current forecast calls for winds of 10.3 mph blowing out to right-center throughout the game. Considering Lynn’s ability to serve up long balls, that’s a noteworthy MLB weather report.
The debutant matches up with an Oakland Athletics lineup that has posted a 105 wRC+ and .315 wOBA against right-handed pitching across their last 10 games. Those numbers are certainly passable for a team with such a bad record, so it’s safe to say they’re in fine form heading into this series.
Oakland has yet to announce a starting pitcher as of the time of this writing, but that’s simply a formality as left-hander Ken Waldichuk is scheduled to throw the majority of innings — whether that’s as a starter or in relief following an opener.
The 25-year-old hurler has been an unmitigated disaster, posting the third-highest BB-rate (12.8%) among starters with at least 80 IP on route to a 6.38 ERA. He checks in at the 19th percentile in xERA/xwOBA and the 28th percentile in xSLG.
The Dodgers have been above-average against left-handed pitching on the year, posting a 110 wRC+ and .333 wOBA. Their recent form is eerily similar — in July they had a 112 wRC+ and .333 wOBA against southpaws. Those numbers will play in such a soft matchup.
Waldichuk rarely pitches deep into games, so we can expect to see plenty of Oakland’s league-worst bullpen on Tuesday. The A’s have a 5.50 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in relief this season.
Both sides have questionable pitching situations and the wind is blowing out to right-center. Give me the Over.
My best bet: Over 9 (-105 at BetMGM)
Athletics vs Dodgers same-game parlay
This SGP will be a three-legger centered around my best bet on the Over. The first addition to that centerpiece will be the Dodgers -1.5 on the run line. This is one of the best teams in baseball and they have been for quite some time, and they’re playing at home against the worst team in the league. While Lynn certainly hasn’t been trustworthy, he’s due for at least a bit of positive regression and gives his team a leg up on Waldichuk, who has been pitiful in 2023. The Dodgers are looking to create some distance in the NL West standings and should be healthier in the lineup while also featuring a few recent additions in Amed Rosario and Enrique Hernandez.
The third and final leg will feature Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts to record 2+ total bases. This is a dream matchup against a starting pitcher whose ERA is closer to two than it is to one. If we see plenty of the A’s bullpen then that’s a good thing for Mookie as his opponent has been woeful in relief. He’s riding a seven-game hitting streak in games in which he’s played and should be well-rested after missing the last two games due to ankle soreness. The final odds of this SGP come out to +380.
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Athletics vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The books took quite a while to post this line as Oakland was waiting on announcing a starting pitcher. The opening number has seen a lot of fluctuation depending on where you look and the Dodgers can currently be had for as low as -290 or as wide as -330. The best comeback available on the visiting team is +265.
Oakland hasn’t been playing its worst ball of the season, posting a 4-6 record across its last 10 games while most recently taking two out of three from the Colorado Rockies.
Still, the Dodgers are a clear favorite for the reason at home where they are 31-20 this season. Oakland naturally has been poor on the road, going 15-38.
The total opened at 9 but has moved to 9.5 at some books. I’d still play the Over at that number.
Both teams have been prone to going Over the total in 2023 — Oakland is 55-47 O/U while LA is 60-39 O/U.
With two questionable starting pitchers on the bump and the wind blowing out to right-center at 10.3 mph, I think there’s a strong reason to expect runs in this matchup. Neither bullpen has lit the world on fire either — Oakland has a 5.50 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in relief while LA has posted a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers are 8-4 O/U in their last 12 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Athletics vs. Dodgers
Athletics vs Dodgers game info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCA, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
Ken Waldichuk (2-6, 6.38 ERA): The A’s have yet to announce if Waldichuk will start or pitch behind an opener, but nonetheless he will eat up the bulk of the innings. He’s been torched to the tune of a 6.38 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The left-hander’s main issue has been with his command as he’s walking a ridiculous 5.42 batters per nine innings en route to a 5.73 FIP.
Lance Lynn (6-9, 6.47 ERA): The 36-year-old makes his Dodgers debut after spending the last two and a half campaigns with the Chicago White Sox. His ERA has been on the rise since 2021, going from 2.69 that year to 3.99 a year ago and now peaking at 6.47. It’s worth noting that his 4.84 xERA and 5.21 FIP both hint toward improvement, while his 4.01 xFIP is especially encouraging.
