It’s a battle of division leaders as the Orioles and Guardians wrap up this four game set at Progressive Field. With Corbin Burns on the bump for the O’s, our MLB picks believe the Orioles have the decided advantage in this one.
The series finale of this AL series gets underway on Sunday with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field. MLB odds have Baltimore as a moderate -146 favorite, while the total sits at eight.
My Orioles vs. Guardians prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, August 4.
Orioles vs Guardians prediction
My best bet
Orioles -1.5 (+125 at BetMGM)
My analysis
On Sunday, the Baltimore Orioles hand the ball to their ace, right-hander Corbin Burnes, and he is always a good candidate to back. Through 22 starts this season, Burnes is 11-4 with a commanding 2.47 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as the right-hander ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. This success is likely to continue against the Cleveland Guardians, a team Burnes is 2-0 against through three career meetings with a 1.83 ERA.
Following Burnes is a strong bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Meanwhile, this pitching staff should receive an abundance of run support.
This season, Baltimore ranks in the top half of the league in home runs, BA, OBP, SLG, and wOBA. This success at the dish is likely to continue against right-hander Gavin Williams, who takes the mound for Cleveland.
It’s been a difficult campaign for Williams, who is 1-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through six starts. His analytics are even worse, considering that he possesses a 5.05 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Orioles vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles -1.5
Corbin Burnes Over 5.5 strikeouts
Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 hits
We are also going to back Burnes in the prop market, considering how dominant of a strikeout pitcher he is. The right-hander ranks in the 91st percentile chase rate and 77th percentile in whiff rate.
Furthermore, if we are backing the Orioles to win by at least two runs, then we obviously need them to record some hits in the process. There is not a better candidate to help us out than Gunnar Henderson, who leads the team in batting average and has recorded at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Guardians odds
Orioles vs Guardians live odds
Orioles vs Guardians opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+125) | Cleveland +1.5 (-150)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -135 | Cleveland +125
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Orioles vs Guardians spread and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore opened as a -140 favorite and has since been bet up to -146.
- I believe that this line will grow wider as we approach first pitch, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at eight and also remains at that price.
- Given the Orioles’ explosive bats, I think it is more likely that this line moves to 8.5 rather than drop to 7.5
Orioles vs Guardians trend
10 of Baltimore’s past 13 wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Guardians.
Orioles vs Guardians game info
| Location: | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Bally Sports Great Lakes |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (11-4, 2.47 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher: | Gavin Williams (1-3, 3.72 ERA) |
Orioles vs Guardians latest injuries
Orioles vs Guardians weather
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