Man City takes on Luton Town in an FA Cup tilt this Tuesday, and the gap separating them in the Premier League table should reflect itself in this spot, per our soccer betting picks.
We have an all-Premier League tie in the FA Cup fifth round on Tuesday between Luton Town and Manchester City, and we have the free betting picks you need for the game. These two clubs are having very contrasting seasons in the Premier League, with Luton trying to escape the relegation zone and Man City looking to hunt down Liverpool as they battle to win another title.
Will Luton be able to cause a soccer odds upset against Pep Guardiola’s talented team? Don’t miss our Luton Town vs. Manchester City soccer picks and predictions for the FA Cup match on Tuesday, February 27.
Luton Town vs Man City best odds
| Luton Town |  Man City |
|
|---|---|---|
| +800 | Moneyline | -300 |
| +460 | Draw | +460 |
| Over 2.5 (-185) | Total | Under 2.5 (+155) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on February 25, 2024.
Luton Town vs Man City picks and predictions
The FA Cup fifth round is sandwiched between Premier League action this week with teams battling to seal a spot in the next round and continue towards Wembley. On Tuesday, we’re served up a big tie at Kenilworth Road between Luton and Manchester City, two Premier League teams. They’ve met once this season with Man City winning 2-1 on the road in December.
They’ve had very different seasons so far, as you’d expect. Luton are third from the bottom but in truth, they’ve actually been very impressive and have been the best of the newly promoted teams by a margin. They play with real passion and commitment, but the sad reality is that in terms of quality, their team doesn’t match that of 17 or more others in the league.
Man City sit second in the league as they look to chase down Liverpool, but that in itself in impressive given that they were playing really poorly, by their high standards, at the start of the season. It’s only been since mid-December that they’ve begun to reach the levels that we know Pep Guardiola’s teams are capable of. Since then, they’ve arguably been the best team in the league. It’s worth noting that the last meeting between these teams was just before the return of Kevin De Bruyne, which seemed to kickstart Man City back to their best.
The best bet for this game is to back Man City -1.5 to win, meaning that they need to win by two or more goals. Before we talk about Man City, we need to acknowledge Luton. They played brilliantly but still lost when these teams last met, and now Luton have a number of injuries with Marvelous Nakamba and Tom Lockyer both missing from the midfield. There’s also the strong chance of rotation because, as good as the FA Cup is, the ultimate aim for Luton this season is Premier League survival.
Rotation wouldn’t be such an issue for Man City, who are absolutely stacked with quality throughout the team. Not only that, but Josko Gvardiol is the only player on the injury table, meaning that Guardiola can choose from nearly his full roster. Guardiola hasn’t rotated too much in the FA Cup, believing his team can win on all fronts, so we should only see a couple of players come into the lineup.
You can get just under plus money on City -1.5 on the spread, which is real value when you consider the difference in quality between the teams. Not only that, but the ever-increasing list of injuries is an issue for Luton Town and it might mean even more rotation as the club bid to stay in the league. City will win this with ease, so back them to win it by a couple of goals.
My best bet: Man City -1.5 (-113 at TonyBet)
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Luton Town vs Man City same-game parlay
Man City -1.5
Man City HT/FT
Luton exactly 0 goals
We’re taking Man City -1.5 on the spread and we’re adding further legs, the first of which is Man City on the halftime/fulltime market. It’s not a direct contrast, but through 26 league games, no team has been winning more games than City at halftime (13). They’ve also scored 25 goals, the largest of all but one team.
We’re also going to back Man City keeping a clean sheet. The reasons are two-fold, as we might see Luton rotating their forwards combined with the improvement in City’s defending. They started the season being very leaky but they’ve allowed just one goal in the past four Premier League games. As City have improved in the past few months, so has the backline, which now look far tighter, something which should mean a clean sheet against Luton.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Luton Town vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis
Given that the best bet is Man City on the spread, you could be forgiven for thinking that I’d recommend backing Man City on the moneyline. But the reality is that while they are almost certain to win, I can’t really recommend betting on something as short as -304. The FA Cup is known for shocks and -304 offers no value at all. I’d also avoid betting the draw at +459 or a Luton win at +800.
If Total Goals is where you’re looking to bet, you can get -186 on Over 2.5 goals and +154 on Under 2.5 goals. We should see City win this by multiple goals but at odds of -186, the Over doesn’t really offer value either. There have been Over 2.5 goals in 72% of Luton’s league games, including 69.2% when at home. City have had all but three road games in the league hit the Over.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Luton Town vs Man City game info
| Location: | Kenilworth Road Stadium, Luton Town, UK |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 41F, 10 mph winds, PoP 0% |
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Luton Town vs Man City key injuries
Luton Town: Mads Andersen CB (Out), Tom Lockyer CM (Out), Marvelous Nakamba CM (Out), Jacob Brown CAM (Out), Elijah Adebayo FWR (Out), Alfie Doughty WB (Questionable), Albert Sambi Lokonga CM (Questionable)
Man City: Josko Gvardiol CB (Out)
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