Mariners vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds — 8-21

Break out the brooms? The Los Angeles Dodgers go for the home sweep of the Seattle Mariners in what’s expected to be a pitcher’s duel between Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty.

Our Mariners vs. Dodgers predictions dive into the player prop market with our best MLB picks below.

Mariners vs Dodgers prediction

My best bet
Jack Flaherty Over 7.5 strikeouts (-108 at BetRivers)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis
The Seattle Mariners might break a record this year — and it’s not one of the good variety. They simply can’t avoid striking out, posting a 27.7% strikeout rate that may set a new record if it continues over the latter parts of the season. 

Seattle has been particularly woeful against right-handed pitching with a 28.4% K-rate and .208 BA across the last 15 days. We only have to look back to Monday when we witnessed Gavin Stone strike out 10 Mariners across seven innings while allowing just two hits and two walks. 

Jack Flaherty gets the call for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday night, so it’s likely Seattle’s fortunes turn around later rather than sooner. The veteran is having a standout campaign with a 3.06 ERA and a career-high 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. 

The underlying metrics help paint the picture of a dominant pitcher. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in whiff rate (33%) and the 94th percentile in walk rate (4.7), and his swinging strike rate of 14.1% is the highest it’s been in any season other than the COVID-altered 2020 year. 

I’m not looking at Tuesday’s performance — when Walker Buehler notched a lone strikeout across four innings — as some sort of turnaround for the Mariners. I noted in my preview for that game that Buehler has been flat-out unable to fool opposing hitters in his return to the mound this season with a paltry 7% swinging strike rate heading into the contest. 

Flaherty is a different animal altogether with 24 strikeouts across his last three starts. He’s exceeded his strikeout prop in seven of his last nine outings and I’m betting on him to do so yet again against a historically inept Mariners lineup.

Mariners vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)

Jack Flaherty Over 7.5 strikeouts

Under 7.5

Dodgers -1.5

This game is expected to be a pitcher’s duel with Flaherty and Logan Gilbert taking the mound, and I have little reason to think it’ll play out as anything else. Gilbert has elite numbers (94th percentile walk rate, 84th percentile whiff rate) and has allowed more than three earned runs just once over his last six starts. 

I do fancy the Dodgers, though, and they’ve dominated their PNW counterparts by winning eight straight. Dave Roberts’ lineup has seen a tremendous boost lately with Mookie Betts, Max Muncy (two straight games with a home run since returning from the IL), and Tommy Edman back in the fold. Gavin Lux has also transformed into a Top-10 hitter over the last month and a half. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mariners vs Dodgers odds

Mariners vs Dodgers live odds

Mariners vs Dodgers opening odds

• Moneyline: Seattle +140 | Los Angeles -165
• Run line: Seattle +1.5 (-150) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+125)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Mariners vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Mariners have lost six of Logan Gilbert’s last eight starts, failing to cover the run line in all but one of those defeats. 
• Seattle has been a losing team on the road (27-36) while L.A. has been tough to beat at home (39-22 overall, 12-3 in their last 15)

Mariners vs Dodgers trend

Jack Flaherty has gone Over his strikeout prop in seven of his last nine outings. Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Dodgers.

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