Some political pundits are skeptical that the issue of abortion will drive voters to the polls in November, or that abortion rights ballot measures will result in more votes for Democrats.
New polling from Civiqs for Daily Kos casts doubt on that assumption, showing just how important the issue—and the candidates’ position on it—is to voters. Nearly half of respondents, or 48%, say that they would not vote for a major candidate who disagrees with them on the issue.
The breakdown by party affiliation is particularly telling: 70% of Democrats compared to 28% of Republicans and 42% of independents demand that the candidates asking for their votes for president, senator, governor, and the House of Representatives agree with them on abortion. That’s a heck of a lot more Democrats caring about choice in this election than Republicans.
It’s also where the gender gap between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump shows up. She has the support of 58% of women while 36% of them support Trump, and 57% of women say they will cast their votes based on this issue.
This echoes last month’s Gallup poll, which showed a record high percentage of respondents—32%—saying they’ll vote solely on the issue. That poll showed 23% of pro-choice voters and just 8% of anti-abortion voters prioritizing abortion. Again, those on the side of restoring abortion rights show a much stronger commitment to the issue.
That’s good news for Senate Democrats defending their seats in battleground states like Arizona, Nevada, and Montana, where measures to protect reproductive rights will be on the ballot. That’s one reason why there’s a lot of money pouring in to support the abortion measures in those states: $17 million so far in Nevada, $16 million in Arizona, and $6 million in Montana, an astonishing number for the small-population state.
The opportunity to vote on abortion could encourage women and young people to vote for Democratic Senate candidates, including Ruben Gallego in Arizona, Jon Tester in Montana, and Jacky Rosen in Nevada.
“The fight for reproductive freedom will once again be at the forefront of the issues landscape in Senate battlegrounds, and Senate Republican candidates’ well-documented opposition to women’s right to make their own health care decisions is a deal breaker for voters,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia told Axios.
The polling backs that up.
The forced birth cultists understand that, as well. It’s why the anti-abortion camp is pulling out all the stops with court challenges in several states to keep those measures off the ballot. They know they’re on the losing side of this.
