NFL Betting Trends – Week 9

Don’t you love it when things just come together perfectly? 

That’s the theme of my Week 9 trend report as we have multiple matchups where the opponents have achieved the same specific betting outcome in most of their games this season. As a result, we have some direction with how to bet on a handful of games this week. 

Like I always say though, you need more than NFL betting trends for a reason to place a bet, so be sure to dig into some stats and try to determine if the market is reacting to the trends before making any NFL picks.

Checking in on some league-wide betting results, Unders continue to be a strong bet as they’ve hit in 59.5% of games. Perhaps because of that, we’re starting to see some lower totals as seven games on the NFL odds board have a total of 40 or less. In Week 8 we had just three games with a total of 40 or less, while Week 7 had four.

Let’s get into the Week 9 trends!

Best NFL Week 9 betting trends

Titans vs. Steelers

The trend: These teams have combined to go Under in 11 of 14 games this season

At 36.5, this game features one of the lowest totals of the season. But there’s a good case for the Under with both offenses struggling in the red zone, while each D has been strong in that category. The Pittsburgh Steelers have seen three of their last four games stay below 36.5 points. 

See all Titans vs. Steelers trends for Week 9.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs

The trend: The Chiefs are 16-3 SU after a loss since Patrick Mahomes became the starter

No one should be surprised the Kansas City Chiefs have been great at bouncing back and they’ll be looking to do just that after an embarrassing performance in Denver. They’re only favored by 2.5 in this matchup which is taking place in Germany. As anyone with an internet connection can tell you, the Miami Dolphins haven’t been strong vs. high-level competition, so it could be a good redemption spot for the Chiefs. 

See all Dolphins vs. Chiefs trends for Week 9.

Buccaneers vs. Texans

The trend: These teams combined to go Under in 11 of 14 games this season

With the total set at 40, It’s worth mentioning these teams have failed to cross 40 combined points in 10 of their 14 combined games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are struggling to score lately as they haven’t reached 20 points in three straight games, while the Houston Texans have allowed 17 points or less in four of their last five games. 

See all Buccaneers vs. Texans trends for Week 9.

Commanders vs. Patriots

The trend: The Patriots are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games

I think it’s fair the New England Patriots are due for at least a decade of torment and uncertainty at the quarterback position. Despite the wheels slowly starting to come off in the post-Tom Brady era, oddsmakers are still giving them too much respect based on who the head coach is and anyone who’s been backing them is paying for it. New England is favored by three against the Washington Commanders who have gone 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. 

See all Commanders vs. Patriots trends for Week 9.

Rams vs. Packers

The trend: These teams have combined to go Over the third quarter total in 11 of 15 games

We’re getting weird with this one, but who cares how weird a bet is as long as it hits? These offenses appear to be making some halftime adjustments as they rank first and sixth in third-quarter scoring. The third-quarter total for this game is at 7.5 at the time of this writing.

See all Rams vs. Packers trends for Week 9.

Vikings vs. Falcons

The trend: These teams have combined to go Under in 13 of 16 games this season

The Minnesota Vikings certainly didn’t profile as an Under team coming into the season, but they’ve managed to go Under in seven of eight games and now the offense is without both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Vikings’ road games have been especially low-scoring lately, as their last three games outside of Minnesota have seen combined scores of 34, 32, and 34. This game has a total of 37.5. 

See all Vikings vs. Falcons trends for Week 9.

Seahawks vs. Ravens

The trend: The Seahawks are 19-5 ATS as an underdog of four or more since October of 2011

Pete Carroll certainly gets his team to play up to the competition, and this could again be the case in Baltimore on Sunday with the Seattle Seahawks as +5.5-point underdogs. Trends are aligning quite strongly for this game as the Baltimore Ravens are a brutal 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of four or more.

See all Seahawks vs. Ravens trends for Week 9.

Cardinals vs. Browns

The trend: Arizona’s road Under record + Cleveland’s home Under record is 6-1-1

We’ve got a low total of 37.5 for this game, but these teams are producing low scores based on where they’re playing. Arizona Cardinals’ road games have seen an average combined score of just 38.1 points thanks to scoring 16 or fewer points in all four of their road games. Cleveland Browns’ home games meanwhile are averaging just 31.1 combined points. Cleveland has allowed just 12.8 points per game in four home games.

See all Cardinals vs. Browns trends for Week 9.

Bears vs. Saints

The trend: The Bears are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games

Sometimes we overthink this whole betting thing. Why spend hours handicapping games when you can simply fade the Chicago Bears on the road and collect your winnings? Chicago has been especially bad on the road lately where it’s lost six of eight games by double digits. The Bears have been an awful bet regardless of location, as they’ve gone a pitiful 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games.

See all Bears vs. Saints trends for Week 9.

Colts vs. Panthers

The trend: The last three Colts’ games have gone Over and averaged 66.3 points per game

This is a small sample size, but a trend needs to start somewhere and these three games all easily went Over by 13 points or more. There might be something to this high-scoring pattern as it began when Gardiner Minshew officially became the starter. The Carolina Panthers have also been involved in some very high-scoring games, as three of their last five games reached 63 or more points. The total for this matchup is 44 points.

See all Colts vs. Panthers trends for Week 9.

Giants vs. Raiders

The trend: The Raiders have gone Under their team total in all eight of their games this season

In case you haven’t noticed, the Las Vegas Raiders stink, especially on offense. They’re averaging just 15.8 points per game and the only time they reached the 20-point mark was when they recorded a safety at the end of the Patriots game. Their offense has just 19 total points in their last two games vs the Bears and Lions. The New York Giants’ defense is coming around, as they’ve allowed just 14, seven, and 13 points in their last three games. It should also be noted New York has gone Under its team total in seven of eight games.

See all Giants vs. Raiders trends for Week 9.

Cowboys vs. Eagles

The trend: These teams are a combined 12-3 to the first half Over

This game has a first-half total of 22.5 which is a number the teams cleared in their two meetings last season — combining 37 first-half points in one game and 23 in the other. The Dallas Cowboys’ offense has seen quite a drop off in scoring from one half to the next this season as they’re averaging 9.6 fewer points in the second half compared to the first where they’re tied for a league-high 18.9 points. 

See all Cowboys vs. Eagles trends for Week 9.

Bills vs. Bengals

The trend: The Bills are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog

The Buffalo Bills aren’t underdogs very often. You’d have to go back to December 26, 2021, for the last time they were getting points. The Bills are an all-or-nothing team that occasionally takes their foot off the gas vs lesser opponents (see losses to the Jets and Patriots this season… and going right down to the wire with the Giants). Still, they also have a proven ability to show up for big games… in the regular season, at least. 

See all Bills vs. Bengals trends for Week 9.

Chargers vs. Jets

The trends: The Jets are 1-6 ATS on the first-half spread, while the Chargers are 1-6 ATS on the second-half spread

It’s been a tale of two halves for these teams this season as the New York Jets start slow, but manage to hang around deep into games, while the Los Angeles Chargers get worse as the game goes on. The Jets’ defense has been especially strong in the second half where they’re allowing a league-best 5.4 points, however, their offense ranks 27th in first-half points with just 7.4. The Chargers are favored by 1.5 in both the first and second half. 

See all Chargers vs. Jets trends for Week 9.

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