There tends to be a lot of overreacting in the Week 2 NFL spreads, but I’m here to tell you teams are not as good, nor as bad, as they looked in Week 1 — except Daniel Jones, he stinks. Join me as I give you the rundown on all 16 games below.
There’s no worse feeling than getting excited about something only to have it be the worst experience ever. That was my Week 1 in a nutshell. Thankfully, Week 2 is among the better weeks to make NFL picks against the spread as most tend to overreact to a single week’s worth of data.
If you’re in a season-long ATS contest like the Circa Millions, a bad start isn’t the end of the world, but a bad Week 2 could spell trouble.
Thankfully for you, I’ve done the homework and can help you bounce back in a big way starting with the Thursday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Here’s to a blazing hot Week 2.
Week 2 picks against the spread
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 9-10.
Week 2 ATS picks
Bills vs Dolphins
Bills +2.5
There wasn’t much to like about either team’s performance in Week 1, but the absence of De’Von Achane will hurt the Miami Dolphins offense. Yes, they still have Tyreek Hill, but Josh Allen put up 34 points with a brand-new receiving corps. Not to mention the Bills have won 10 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings.
Saints vs Cowboys
Cowboys -6.5
Both teams enter this game off blowout wins but the Saints beat the Panthers while the Cowboys went into Cleveland and dropped 37 on what’s supposed to be a really good Browns defense. I’ll take the Cowboys here as the better team, at home laying less than a touchdown.
Raiders vs Ravens
Ravens -9.5
The Raiders were gashed by the Chargers on the ground, giving up 176 rushing yards. Do you know who has a very good run game? The Baltimore Ravens. The Raiders will offer very little resistance and the early body clock start on the East coast won’t make things any easier.
Giants vs Commanders
Commanders -1.5
Oh god, please, won’t somebody think of the children? Daniel Jones vs. Jayden Daniels. I’ll take the home side, because at least Daniels knows which color jersey to throw the football to.
Chargers vs Panthers
Panthers +6.5
You may call me crazy but this is one of those games where I’d rather trust a bad team to play a good game than trust the Chargers to cover a spread on the road. There’s just too many fresh wounds when it comes to this Bolts team.
Colts vs Packers
Colts -3.5
For as bad as the defense was vs. the Texans, I don’t see it being as bad vs. the Malik Willis-led Packers. The Colts have a plethora of options and should be able to do enough to outscore their issues.
49ers vs Vikings
49ers -6.5
The Vikings were the beneficiary of some shoddy QB play in Week 1 from Daniel Jones, but they won’t be that lucky this time around. The Niners are the real deal with or without Christian McCaffrey and should have no issues running away with this game vs. Sam Darnold.
Browns vs Jaguars
Browns +3.5
There’s no way the Browns can be as bad as they were in Week 1, right? RIGHT? While Deshaun Watson is a shell of the quarterback he once was, the Jaguars continue to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot, and for that reason, I’m out on Jacksonville. Cleveland will do just enough to either lose or win by a field goal.
Seahawks vs Patriots
Patriots +3.5
Do the Patriots really have something cooking in Foxborough? Or were they just the beneficiaries of playing a disjointed Bengals team? Either way, I like what they did defensively, and in their home opener catching more than a field goal, I have to bite.
Jets vs Titans
Jets -3.5
What we know about the Titans is that they lost to a team that scored zero offensive points. What’s worse is they now have to play a team that has a real quarterback (albeit old) and some good weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Look for the Jets defense to bounce back and help the team pick up a win and cover.
Buccaneers vs Lions
Buccaneers +7
For some strange reason, the Lions went away from the run game in the second half and were nearly made to pay for it. Defensively they were shredded by crossing routes, and if Matthew Stafford had more options the Lions would have probably lost. This Bucs team has plenty of skilled players who can make big plays and I trust Baker Mayfield to keep this one close.
Rams vs Cardinals
Cardinals -1.5
Speaking of the Rams, the loss of Puka Nacua will really hurt their offense as Cooper Kupp can only get open on slants and outs so many times before that’s taken away. Defensively, they were gashed and James Conner should be in line for a big day at home. Cardinals roll here.
Steelers vs Broncos
Broncos +3
The Steelers are 1-0 because they had more competent QB play than the Falcons. I still believe in Bo Nix despite his two interceptions, and I believe the defense will find a quick fix to their run-defense. Broncos pull off the upset here.
Bengals vs Chiefs
Chiefs -5.5
Whether or not you’re Team Chase or Team Bengals, there’s no denying his contract extension is a distraction to the team. Furthermore, Tee Higgins may still be out, which means another rough game for the Bengals offense. Chiefs laying under a touchdown at home? Yes, please.
Bears vs Texans
Texans -6.5
While the headlines read “Caleb Williams becomes first rookie QB to win in his debut since 2002″, the underlying metrics were awful. They got away with it against a bad team like the Titans, but against a Super Bowl contender like the Texans, Williams will struggle.
Falcons vs Eagles
Eagles -6.5
Kirk Cousins will not outplay Jalen Hurts and that’s a hill I’ll die on this week. The Eagles will be revved up in their home opener, while the Falcons are destined to hand the keys to the franchise to Michael Penix Jr. before Week 6.
Not intended for use in MA.
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