Rays vs Reds Predictions, Picks, Odds — 7-28

It’s the rubber match of a 3-game set to kick off MLB’s Sunday slate, as the Cincinnati Reds take on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Both teams need all the wins they can get, but my Reds vs. Rays predictions are focusing on the total, with the Under highlighting my MLB picks for this matinee affair on July 28.

Reds vs Rays prediction

My best bet
Under 7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

My analysis
The Cincinnati Reds turn to ace Hunter Greene to finish off this interleague set with a win.

The 24-year-old righty has been lights out of late, surrendering a total of two earned runs over the last four starts. Greene picked up the win last time out against the Braves, giving up just two hits over seven shutout innings — striking out seven in a Cincy 4-1 win.

However, that’s only the fourth victory the Reds have picked up in his last nine starts because their offense hasn’t exactly been holding up its end of the bargain, plating just 3.2 runs per contest in those five losses.

Greene will be facing a Tampa Bay Rays team struggling to stay consistent offensively to start the second half. 

In the Rays’ five wins coming out of the All-Star break, they’re averaging better than seven runs per contest but just 1.75 runs in their four losses. This is a team ranked Bottom 5 in runs scored on the year.

Tampa will use reliever Shawn Armstrong in the opener’s role, and he’ll be making his eighth start of the year. He last opened July 23 against the Blue Jays, giving up just a hit and a walk while striking out four in two frames. The righty’s longest outing this year has been two innings, and Armstrong owns a 5.64 ERA.

With the Rays’ win Saturday, they’ve now taken three of the last four head-to-head matchups, shutting out the Reds in each of those contests.

It’s not a surprise the Under has hit in four of the last five meetings, and with Greene on a roll paired with Cincy’s quiet bats against Tampa’s pitching, it’s worth targeting the Under again.

Reds vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 7.5

Hunter Greene Under 4.5 hits

Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 total bases

Greene’s microscopic 0.45 ERA in three July starts is possible by limiting the damage early and often. He’s surrendered three hits or less in each of those starts, and if you go back to the start of June, he’s held opponents Under five hits seven times in nine starts.

Tampa’s hitting is far from potent, ranking inside the Bottom 10 in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS.

Reds’ shortstop Elly De La Cruz has gone hitless in the first two games of this series, but this is a guy who entered the series on a 12-game hit streak, topping his 1.5 total bases prop nine times. De La Cruz hasn’t gone hitless in a series since pulling an 0-fer in a mini 2-game set against the Cubs at the end of June.

This little blip has put his total base prop to plus odds, and it’s definitely worth targeting in our SGP.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Reds vs Rays odds

Reds vs Rays live odds

Reds vs Rays opening odds

• Run line: Cincinnati -1.5 (+139) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-154)
• Moneyline: Cincinnati -126 | Tampa Bay +117
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+103) | Under 7.5 (-116)

Reds vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis

• Tampa has alternated wins and losses in seven straight games.
• The Reds are 3-4 on the road since the All-Star break.
• The Under has cashed in six of the last eight meetings.
• Cincinnati has gone Under the total in four of its last five.

Reds vs Rays trend

The Reds have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Rays

Reds vs Rays game info

Reds vs Rays latest injuries

Reds vs Rays weather

Pages related to this topic