Prop bet #1: A fishy Snell
The best time to have grabbed this prop was likely first thing this morning as Blake Snell odds have shifted significantly on the Under 7.5 strikeouts. Most books are offering lines as short as -160. However, at the time of this writing, FanDuel is still offering a longer number at -125 and BetMGM isn’t far off that at -130, which simply underlines why it’s important to shop around.
Snell is one of baseball’s preeminent strikeout pitchers, punching out close to 12 batters per nine innings or 31.1% of opposing hitters, both marks ranking within the Top 5 of all qualified starters. The issue is he allows more walks than everyone, limiting just how deep he can go into games. And while he’s surpassed tonight’s total in four straight, the Los Angeles Dodgers offer a trickier opponent.
The Dodgers own a 21.5% strikeout rate on the season (ninth-lowest in MLB) and could be inclined to sit lefty hitters like James Outman and Max Muncy — both of whom strike out more than a quarter of the time — to maintain the handedness advantage.
The Dodgers also own the highest walk rate in baseball at 10.6%, which could be the biggest thorn in Snell’s side tonight.
Blake Snell prop: Under 7.5 strikeouts (-125 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: A Pepiot in his stepiot
Sticking with the nightcap, let’s grab Dodgers right-hander Ryan Pepiot to go Over 14.5 outs. The juice is heavy at -167 but it’s worth it. He just needs to clear five innings, something he’s done in three of his four starts this season.
While Pepiot was a strikeout pitcher in the minors and his initial MLB stint in 2022, he also issued a lot of walks. He’s trimmed both his strikeout and walk rates in 2023 at both levels of competition, allowing for a more efficient hurler to take the mound. And while the San Diego Padres draw walks at almost an identical clip to the Dodgers, it won’t much matter if Pepiot continues to pound the zone.
This number will almost certainly jump to 15.5, which is much less likely to hit as the Dodgers will look to preserve the 26-year-old’s arm with all the absences that have hit the pitching staff of late, particularly in the rotation. As long as it doesn’t cross that threshold, Pepiot’s Over is the play.
Ryan Pepiot prop: Over 14.5 outs recorded (-167)
Prop bet #3: Rook gets the hook
San Francisco Giants rookie Kyle Harrison has plenty of promise. Across 20 starts at Triple-A this season, he amassed a 14.39 K/9 and has only seen that dip to 11.51 at the MLB level.
So far, the southpaw has limited his walks relative to his minor-league production, not issuing more than two in any of his four starts. The problem is he hasn’t been given too long of a leash to date and has been absolutely pummeled by the home run ball in his last two starts. Granted, he allowed only one dinger to the Rockies, but he served up four to the Padres two starts back.
It will be a different sort of punishment awaiting him this afternoon as the Cleveland Guardians don’t hit for much power and don’t draw a ton of walks.
What they do is make contact. A lot of contact. The Guardians are tied with the Nationals for the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 18.8%. The Giants are in the thick of the NL Wil Card race and will not hesitate to jump to the bullpen at the earliest sign of trouble, especially if Harrison’s suspect command comes back to bite him.
This is another prop that might require some shopping around, because it will not remain a plus-money play for long.
Kyle Harrison prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+108)
