President Joe Biden and Donald Trump will face off Thursday night in a debate that could eventually prove to be the contest’s inflection point.
A new poll from the Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research suggests that roughly 6 in 10 American adults plan to watch the debate, which is taking place unusually early in the cycle. The Biden campaign proposed the June timing in hopes of jolting the electorate awake, and the poll suggests they will get their opportunity.
While Trump enjoyed a several-point advantage over Biden in national polling for the first several months of 2024, he has now fallen just a hair behind Biden (40.8% to 40.9%) in 538’s polling average—a shift in fortunes the Biden campaign will surely seek to capitalize on during Thursday’s high-stakes event.
Here are five things to look for during the debate.
1) Message
Biden has finally landed on a relatively simple but broad message: Trump’s in it for himself; I’m in it for you. As former Obama White House Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer noted in his recent Message Box Substack, both of the Biden campaign’s most recent ads center on this framing even though one was about Trump’s “convicted criminal” status and the other highlighted Trump’s pledge to give the rich another massive tax cut.
Expect Biden to repeatedly make the point that Trump isn’t fighting for anyone but himself.
2) Vibe
What Biden says may be less important than how he says it—a point that former Republican strategist Sarah Longwell has repeatedly made. Biden delivered a great State of the Union address earlier this year, but most Americans would strain to recall a certain line he delivered or policy he outlined. What those who watched it likely do remember is that Biden was energized, on point, and gave as good as he got while mixing it up with congressional Republicans who were heckling him.
Don’t get too fixated on a specific policy proclamation or even a verbal slip. Biden will likely be judged most by how much vigor he brought to the debate.
3) Expectations
The Biden campaign took the unconventional approach of raising expectations about their candidate’s performance in advance of the debate—a calculated risk, no doubt. Blowhard Trump, by contrast, originally bragged that he would take on Biden “anytime, anyplace,” only to spend the past several weeks grousing that debate will be rigged against him, thereby giving himself an excuse if he bombs. Remember, Trump didn’t participate in a single debate during the Republican presidential primary, and whatever prep his campaign might have been doing, none of his aides was going to level honest criticism at a man with the deflate ego of a sinking life raft.
The debate holds risks for both candidates, but only one campaign is projecting confidence heading into the event.
4) Coverage
As always, the early takes that circulate on social media will matter, informing both viewers and reporters in real time. But the big downside for Team Biden is the certainty that the right will splice together misleading videos of Biden’s performance, which will then be shared across social media.
We all have an opportunity to combat that disinformation with posts of our own on the platforms of our choosing. It’s a meaningful way for average Americans to engage in the event and help shape its resulting narratives.
5) Wild card
Biden and Trump are both old, and they will both make mistakes in the debate. The difference is in the type of mistakes.
Biden has suffered from a lifelong stutter, and he occasionally stumbles over his words. But Trump not only garbles words regularly but also falls far into incoherence, such as his recent, long-winded ramblings about how he’d rather be electrocuted by a boat’s battery than eaten by a shark. Certainly, that’s the Trump whom the Biden campaign is hoping will show up to the debate.
After all, Trump’s disjointed remarks are not normal for a candidate for the country’s highest office—and there’s a good chance that any such moments will jog the memories of Americans who might have forgotten these glaring deficits of his personality and character.
The debate will air on Thursday at 9:00 PM ET. We’ll be liveblogging it, so please check back with us then.
